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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still