A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
